Monday’s bond market has opened slightly in positive territory with stocks showing minor losses during early trading. The major stock indexes are starting the week in negative territory, pushing the Dow lower by 38 points and the Nasdaq down 3 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (2.03%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates at Friday’s early levels.
There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today, so if we get an intraday revision to mortgage rates it will likely be the result of stock movement. The rest of the week brings us the release of only three pieces of economic data that are likely to affect mortgage rates. None of them are considered to be highly important to the markets and all of the data will come over just two days.
September's Housing Starts will start the week’s activities at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. This Commerce Department report will probably not have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage rates. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking construction starts of new homes, but is usually considered to be of low importance to the financial and mortgage markets. It is expected to show an increase in new home starts between August and September. I believe we need to see a significant surprise in this data for it to have an impact on tomorrow’s mortgage rates.
Overall, Thursday is the best candidate for most active day in rates because it has the most important report of the week. Although, the week’s most important report isn’t exactly considered an important report in the markets. Unless the Existing Home Sales data shows some significantly strong or weak results, it should only have a minor impact on this week's rates. The calmest day will likely be Wednesday or Friday. However, unexpected geopolitical or financial news can significantly influence bond pricing and mortgage rates at any time as can a sizable move in stocks.