Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory as stocks start the week in positive ground and today’s key economic report showed no major surprise. The Dow is currently up 85 points while the Nasdaq has gained 35 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32 (2.17%), but due to strength late Friday we should see little change in this morning’s mortgage pricing if comparing to Friday’s early rates.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) posted their manufacturing index at 10:00 AM ET this morning. It came in at 50.1, just a tick higher than the 50.0 that was expected. It was a slight decline from September’s 50.2, indicating that manufacturer sentiment remained fairly flat last month. Ideally, we would have liked to have seen a decline that brought the index below the benchmark 50.0. The lack of an improvement in sentiment can be considered a win for the bond market. Unfortunately, the news isn’t enough to offset the impact of early stock strength and overseas trading that are influencing bonds this morning.
The rest of the week brings us the release of four more economic reports for the markets to digest with one of the remaining reports considered to be highly influential on the financial and mortgage markets. In addition to the data, there is also a high number of speaking engagements by Federal Reserve members, including one by Fed Chair Yellen to the House Financial Services Committee mid-week.
Tomorrow’s sole report is September's Factory Orders data at 10:00 AM ET. This report is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders release except it includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is expected to show a 0.9% decline in new orders from August's level. A larger decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates while an unexpected rise would be bad news and could push rates slightly higher Tuesday morning since it would indicate economic strength. It is worth noting though, that this report is not considered to be highly important to mortgage rates.
Overall, the single most important day is Friday but tomorrow is likely to be pretty active also. Tuesday will probably be the calmest day unless something unexpected happens. We have relevant data set for release each day of the week and a full Fed speaking schedule that can cause ripples in the markets at any time. They lead me to believe that we will see another active week for mortgage rates.