This week has only four pieces of relevant monthly or quarterly economic data with one being considered highly important. However, there is good reason to believe that the data will be secondary to Britain’s Exit vote as the catalyst for driving the markets, especially the early days of the week. There is a good possibility of seeing Friday’s major bond rally and stock sell-off extend into tomorrow’s trading. Therefore, even though there is no relevant economic data set for release tomorrow, it still is likely going to be a pretty active day for the financial and mortgage markets.
The first release of the week will be the final reading to the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) early Tuesday morning. The GDP is the sum of all products and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best measurement of economic growth or contraction. However, this particular data is quite aged now (covers January through March) and will likely have little impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from previous readings. Market participants are looking more towards next month's release of the current quarter's initial GDP reading. Last month's first revision showed a 0.8% annual rate of growth in the GDP. Tuesday’s update is expected to show a 1.0%, meaning the economy was slightly stronger than previously thought during the quarter. A larger increase in the GDP would be considered negative for rates as it means stronger economic activity.
June's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will also be posted Tuesday morning. This data is relevant to the financial markets because it measures consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident about their own financial and employment situations, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future, fueling economic growth. If it shows a sizable increase in confidence from last month, we can expect to see a negative reaction in bonds and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 93.1, up from last month's 92.6 reading. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates.
May's Personal Income and Outlays data is scheduled for release Wednesday at 8:30 AM ET. This report gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending activity. They are important because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If consumer income is rising, they have more money to spend each month. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 0.3% in income and also a 0.3% rise in the spending portion of the report. Smaller increases in both of these readings would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index for June at 10:00 AM ET Friday morning. This index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives on current business conditions. May's reading that was posted last month came in at 51.3. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed executives felt business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. Analysts are expecting a reading of 51.5, indicating slight improvement in manufacturer sentiment. Good news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be a decline in the index, signaling worsening conditions in the manufacturing sector. This is the week's most important report and is watched closely because it is the first piece of data that tracks the previous month's activity.
Overall, I am expecting to see another active week in the financial and mortgage markets. Although, they probably won’t move like they did last Friday. The most important day could be any day due to stock movement or overseas news, particularly regarding other countries that may consider following Britain’s lead to break away from the European Union. Friday has the most important report in the ISM release and it also has an early close in the bond market ahead of the Independence Day Holiday.