This week brings us the release of only one report that has the potential to affect mortgage rates in addition to the weekly unemployment figures. The stock and bond markets are closed tomorrow in observance of the Labor Day holiday and will reopen Tuesday morning. Accordingly, there will be no update to this report tomorrow.
There is nothing of relevance scheduled to be posted or announced Tuesday or Wednesday morning. In the absence of any economic data on the schedule, look for the stock markets to affect bond trading and mortgage pricing early this week. Stock strength will probably lead to bond weakness and higher mortgage rates. If the major stock indexes fall from current levels, bond prices should rise, pushing mortgage rates lower the first couple days.
The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday. This report details current economic conditions in the U.S. by Federal Reserve regions. It is believed to be a key source of data when the Fed meets for their FOMC meetings and is usually released approximately two weeks prior to each meeting. If it reveals any significant surprises or changes from the previous release, we may see movement in the markets and mortgage pricing as analysts adjust their theories on the Fed's likelihood of raising short-term interest rates when they meet September 20 and 21.
Overall, we should see a calmer week for the bond and mortgage markets unless something unexpected happens. It is difficult to label one particular day as most important, but by default I suppose we can make Wednesday it since it has the only report we need to be concerned with. Any day could be the calmest for rates, assuming stocks don’t rally or sell-off.