This week brings us the release of only three monthly economic reports, none of which are considered to be highly important. Despite the lack of relevant data, it still will be an interesting and important week for mortgage rates. Last week’s selling pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield to a very important resistance level of 3.00%. The fact we have little scheduled to drive trading this week could allow buyers to push yields and mortgage rates lower. On the other hand, if the selling extends into this week and pushes the 10-year above 3.00%, we could see a noticeable upward trend in rates begin.
There is nothing of importance set for tomorrow or Tuesday. August's Housing Starts will start this week's activities early Wednesday morning. It tracks groundbreakings of new home projects but likely will not affect mortgage rates unless its results vary greatly from forecasts. It is expected to show that starts of new homes rose last month, indicating strength in the housing sector. That is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because a stronger housing sector makes broader economic growth more likely. However, this data is not important enough to cause a noticeable change in mortgage rates unless there is a wide variance between forecasts and the actual results.
Next up is August's Existing Home Sales from the National Association of Realtors that will be posted late Thursday morning. This report will give us another indication of housing sector strength by tracking home resales in the U.S. It is expected to show a slight increase from July's sales. Good news would be a sizable decline in sales because a weakening housing sector makes broader economic growth more difficult.
The final report of the week will come from the Conference Board who will post their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for August late Thursday morning also. The moderately important LEI index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a 0.5% increase, meaning that it is predicting moderate growth in economic activity over the next several months. A larger increase would be considered negative news for bonds and could lead to a small increase in mortgage rates Thursday.
Overall, no particular day stands out as the most important for rates. We could see movement any or every day. However, the daily moves will likely be small. It still will be prudent to watch the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate. This is because the markets can turn volatile without notice by events such as tariff or geopolitical news.